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The official website of The Development Corp.'s
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Facts and Figures Relevant to Economic Development in Clinton County, New York

Health and Education Jobs Remain Strong

by Paul Grasso - April 9, 2009

Clinton County is following the trend of the rest of the state and the country as unemployment rates rise. The recession is the longest in decades, but signs are appearing that suggest this trough of economic activity is bottoming out. Private job growth will remain sluggish, though, as employers trim their costs and await increased demand.

Data released April 1st show unemployment rates in February, 2009 were up year over year in every one of the country's 372 metropolitan areas.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports unemployment rates for 372 areas across the country. The unemployment rates ranges from a low of 3.5% in the Houma, Louisiana area, to a high of 24.5% in El Centro, California. More than 100 areas recorded unemployment rates of 10% or worse, while only 20 areas had rates under 5%.

The New York State Department of Labor also reported unemployment rates The regional unemployment statistics are based on information provided by New York State?s Department of Labor (NYSDOL):

	February 2009	January 2009	February 2008
Clinton	10.9%	10.1%	7.0%
New York State	7.8%	7.0%	4.6%
United States	8.1%	7.6%	4.8%

The current unemployment rate in the United States is at a level not seen since November of 1983.  However, the "official" unemployment rate is only one of a number of unemployment rates calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These unemployment rates are denoted U-1 through U-6, with the U-3 measure deemed the "official unemployment rate" that is most often quoted.

Before 1978, the official U-3 unemployment rate measured only included heads of households, under the premise that an unemployed head of the household was the best indicator of economic pain. A subsequent revision in 1978 changed ?head of household? to persons 25 years or older. It was then modified in 1994 to include those aged 16 or older who are unemployed but have actively looked for work in the last 15 weeks. This measure is still quite restrictive but less restrictive than the previous incarnation.

By contrast, U-6 is a broader measure of unemployment, and includes those people counted by U-3 but also includes "discouraged workers" and "marginally attached workers."  Discouraged workers are people who have stopped looking for work because they believe they are currently unemployable. These discouraged workers have looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months but have not been able to find one.

Marginally attached workers are people who are not currently looking for work, but have attempted to look for a job sometime in the recent past and would take a job if offered. "Marginally attached workers" are not included in the "official" unemployment number because they have not looked for work in the past 4 weeks. 

Those that are sufficiently discouraged to have not searched for work in the past twelve months are omitted from all measures of unemployment.

The U-6 figure also includes ?persons employed part time for economic reasons.?  These people want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time job.  For example, a woman with an MBA who has to take a part-time job delivering newspapers is not considered unemployed.

In most instances, the more expansive U-6 measure moves roughly with changes in the U-3 measure. However, when a recession becomes chronic and prolonged, the U-6 measure can grow significantly. For instance, the March 2009 U-6 figure was 16.2% up from 9.1% in March 2008. Over the same period in which the U-3 measure rose by just over three percentage points, the U-6 measure rose by more than seven percentage points.

Comparisons between the official unemployment rate today and the 25% unemployment rate in the depths of the Great Depression are misleading.  During the Depression, the government did not have the U-3 statistic and reported a broader statistic for unemployment.

The New York State Department of Labor reports the private sector job count decreased over the month of February by 25,900, or 0.4 percent, to 7,168,400 (seasonally adjusted). New York State 's unemployment rate, after seasonal adjustment, increased from 7.0 percent in January to 7.8, its highest level since June 1993.

Private sector jobs in New York State continue to decrease, with a loss of 25,900 in February of 2009.  Since February 2008, New York State has lost 143,700 private sector jobs. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost the greatest number of jobs (46,200) with manufacturing a close second (31,700) over the same period.

Education and Health Care remain bright spots in the economy.  Educational and Health Services added the largest number of jobs (24,000) over the one-year period from February 2008 to February 2009.  Most of the increase occurred in health services:

Economists are predicting the beginning of an economic turnaround in late 2009 or early 2010. Typically, job growth trails the turnaround by one to two quarters as firms delay permanent increases in the labor force until the turnaround is well established. In the interim, though, it is expected that health care jobs will remain strong. Once the turnaround is evident, New York can expect to see significant job growth in professional and business services, information, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade, financial activities and to a lesser extent manufacturing, and utilities.

 

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