 |
TDC IDEA - An Affiliate of the State Data CenterThe official website of The Development Corp.'s
|
 |
The Land of a Steady Workforce
by Colin Read, April 10, 2009
In these days of dramatic shifts in employment, demographics, retirement, and wealth, the workforce of Clinton County, NY, is spectacular in its sustainability and robustness.
The nation is aging. Nationwide, the population in the prime career years of 25 to 64 is projected to go from about 156 million people in 2005 to 174 million in 2030. Over the same period, these workers will go from supporting 140 million under 25 and over 65 or over to supporting almost 190 million in 2030. Nationally, we will move from a greater number in the prime career age workforce in 2005 to a greater number out of the workforce by 2030.
Clinton County shows less spectacular, and less destabilizing, growth. Our prime workforce of 25 to 64 year olds was just under 44,000 in 2005, and is projected to fall slightly, to just under 43,000 by 2030. At the same time, those outside of the prime workforce are expected to rise from 38,000 in 2005 to 45,000 by 2030, as projected below:
While 44,000 career aged individuals supported a little over 38,000 other individuals in Clinton County in 2005, the picture remains relatively similar in 2030. By then, there will be just under 43,000 individuals in the 25-64 year old bracket, supporting under 46,000 of those outside of the critical workforce years. By contrast, the country as a whole will add 18,000,000 career workers from 2005 to 2030 but will need to support 50,000,000 people outside the career age range. The extent of a slowly growing production side of the economic pie supporting a rapidly growing consumption sector is not shared in the North Country.
While Clinton County can take advantage of a very steady workforce and a steady population of those under the age of 25, the County does nonetheless show an increase in its elderly population. Those who are 65 years or older will rise from about 10,000 in 2010 to 17,000 by 2030. While the County has the productive capacity to support the consumption of this sector, the 80% growth in that population from 2000 to 2030 will require new investments in health care and assisted living.
Clinton County is spared the much more dramatic growth in the elderly nation-wide. Across the United States, the 65 and older population will grow from 34,991,753 in the 2000 Census to a projected 71,453,471 in 2030. The elderly alone represented 24% of the career age workforce in 2005, but are projected to represent 41% of the career cohort by 2030. The dramatic increase is because the elderly population is expected to grow by 104% in the thirty years from 2000 to 2030.
Over the same period, the elderly population starts off from a lower base in Clinton County, and grows at a more modest 80% over the thirty years.
The demographics also have implications on education in Clinton County. Barring a pattern of in- or out-migration that deviates from the pattern in New England, the population under 25 remains almost rock solid over the 30 year horizon, never deviating by more than 400 from an average of around 28,600 individuals.
To validate our estimates based on those in the career age cohort, we can look at past data on the size of the workforce in Clinton County, as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board:
The Clinton County workforce reached a crescendo in 1994-95 as workers were attracted to decommission the air base. Before the decommissioning, the Clinton County workforce has fluctuated within about seven hundred workers of 40,300 individuals.
We saw a downward trend in workforce size following 1995 as the base was decommissioned and some civilian spousal employees left with their reassigned partners. The downward trend from the peak of over 42,000 in 1994 to the trough of over 38,000 in 2000 was temporarily interrupted by an influx and departure of workers in support of the 1999 ice storm.
The workforce nadir began reversing in the year 2000 and the workforce has returned to its pre-closure level of just over 41,000 individuals. This is very close to the calculated career workforce average of 43,881 workers in 2005, and reflects the fact that all of workforce age are not considered to participate in the workforce. Some are stay-at-home spouses and caregivers, some are retraining, discouraged and withdrawn from the workforce, and some are self employed. While the ratio of those who have withdrawn from the workforce to those that are actively employed or seeking work changes through the business cycle, the graph shows that the Clinton County workforce has remained remarkably robust and steady. This is most reassuring, especially given the major workforce shock arising from the loss of a Strategic Air Command Air Force base in 1995.
There is one interesting twist that may tip the balance of a prime workforce that supports a larger percentage of the population outside the traditional workforce. The elderly aged 75 or older are not only the fastest growing segment of the population. They are also the fastest growing segment of the labor force. In the Monthly Labor Review of November, 2007, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that older workers, aged 55 or over are growing in the labor force at five times the growth predicted for the entire labor force. This is a consequence of the baby boom population and improved health care for older workers, and will likely be exacerbated as a consequence of the economic realities imposed on older workers arising from the global financial meltdown.
Overall, the analysis shows that the Clinton County workforce and demographics have been maintained, despite a base closing and three recessions in the last two decades. This lends confidence to our analysis that shows steadiness of the demographic projections over the next two decades.