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The Long Slog
by Paul Grasso, October 25, 2010
The National Bureau of Economic Research announced earlier this month that the "Great Recession" ended in June 2009. While the recession is technically over, for many Americans, it still feels the same. Certainly, the people looking for work at the region's three OneWorksource Centers sense that not much has changed with respect to jobs. And, according to a recent Gallup Poll, 82% of Americans believe that the economy is still in a recession -- down slightly from 84% in September 2009.
Where is the disconnect?
The national unemployment rate when the recession officially ended in June 2009 was 9.5%. In September 2010, a full 15 months after the recession officially ended, the national unemployment rate was 9.6%. The U-6 unemployment rate is 17.1% - the highest it has been since last April.
When a person is out of work, looking for a job and not finding one, their personal experience is that the recession has not yet ended.
The media still reports the economic news as if the country is still in the recession. Daily coverage of the economy for the past year has painted a bleak picture and reinforced the idea of a weak economy. Recent reports that the economy may actually worsen (there are predications that the national unemployment rate will increase to 10% in 2011) don't help the national economic psyche to feel more positive.
Here are some interesting items from the Gallup poll:
- Only 39% of Americans believe that the economy is "getting a little or a lot better", down from 52% in September of 2009;
- Only 45% of Americans believe that the "economy will be fully recovered or better in a year", down from 65% in September of 2009;
- 61% of Americans believe that the economy is "staying the same, or getting a little or a lot worse", up from 47% in September of 2009; and
- 54% of Americans believe that the "economy will be about the same or worse in a year", up from 35% in September of 2009.
Locally and state-wide, the employment figures remained relatively flat for September. While New York State and Clinton County typically have an unemployment rate above the national average, the glimmer of good news for this state and the region is that the unemployment rate here is lower than the average in the rest of the country:.
| Unemployment Rates* (seasonally adjusted) |
September 2010* | August 2010 |
September 2009 |
| New York State | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| United States | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
| North Country | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% |
| Clinton | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| U-6 | 17.1% | 16.7% | 17.0% |
In New York, according to the New York State Department of Labor, the number of private sector jobs in New York State decreased by 15,600, or 0.2%, to 7,014,500 in September 2010, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Nationally, the number of private sector jobs grew by 0.1% over the same period.
Between August and September 2010, the nonfarm job count (private and public sectors) in the state decreased by 37,600, or 0.4%, to 8,487,500, seasonally adjusted. Nationally, the number of seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs decreased by 0.1% in September.
Change in Jobs by Sector, September 2009 - September 2010
| Sectors With Job Gains: | |
| Other Services | +20,500 |
| Educational & Health Services | +20,000 |
| Professional & Business Services | +8,900 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | +6,000 |
| Natural Resources & Mining | +200 |
| Sectors With Job Losses: | |
| Government | -33,000 |
| Trade, Transportation & Utilities | -7,400 |
| Information | -4,600 |
| Construction | -4,100 |
| Financial Activities | -4,000 |
| Manufacturing | -2,600 |
Highlights from the most recent New York State Department of Labor jobs report related to sectors with job gains or losses since September 2009:
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"Other services" added the most private sector jobs (+20,500) of any sector over the past year. Sector job gains were greatest in religious grant making, civic, and professional organizations (+19,200).
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The educational and health services sector (+20,000) had the second largest increase in jobs over the past year. Within that sector, job gains were greatest in health care and social assistance (+19,200), particularly ambulatory health care services (+8,100).
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The third largest increase in jobs occurred in professional and business services (+8,900). Sector job gains were concentrated in professional, scientific, and technical services (+3,500), especially computer systems design (+3,100).
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The job count also increased over the year in leisure and hospitality (+6,000). Gains in accommodation and food services (+11,800) outweighed losses in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-5,800).
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The job count also grew over the year in natural resources and mining (+200).
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Over the past year, government lost the most jobs (-33,000) of any sector. Job losses were greatest at the local level (-21,200). Losses also occurred at the state (-9,400) and federal (-2,400) levels.
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Trade, transportation and utilities had the second largest decline (-7,400) over the past year. Job losses in wholesale and retail trade (-11,200) more than offset gains in transportation, warehousing and utilities (+3,800).
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Information had the third largest employment decline (-4,600). Sector job losses were largest in publishing (-5,500).
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Job losses in construction (-4,100) were greatest among specialty trade contractors (-8,900).
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The job count also fell over the year in financial activities (-4,000) and manufacturing (-2,600).
At the time the "Great Recession" started in December 2007 the national unemployment rate was just 4.9%. Three years later the unemployment rate has nearly doubled. Given the current national unemployment rate and the number of jobs that seem to have been permanently lost, it is hard to fathom that the country's unemployment rate was less than 5% just three years ago!