 |
TDC IDEA - An Affiliate of the State Data CenterThe official website of The Development Corp.'s
|
 |
Clinton County bright spots on a barren canvas
by Paul Grasso, September 16, 2010
Founded in 1916 as an "objective and independent source of economic and business knowledge," the Conference Board is an international, non-advocacy business membership association. It conducts research across four areas:
- Economy Markets and Value Creation;
- Human Capital;
- Corporate Leadership; and
- High-Performing Organizations.
The website (www.conference-board.org) is a source of always useful and sometimes entertaining information. One of their reports that I found most interesting is The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI). The ETI decreased in August for the second time in the past four months. The index now stands at 96.7, down from July's revised figure of 97.4. The index is up 9.4 percent from a year ago.
"Employment growth has been slow lately, and the Employment Trends Index suggests that it may slow even further this fall," said Gad Levanon, Associate Director, Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "However, we still expect job growth rather than an outright decline in the next several months."
The ETI is based on and analysis of eight factors:
- Percentage of respondents who say they find "jobs hard to get";
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance;
- Percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now;
- Number of employees hired by temporary help agencies;
- Part-time workers for economic reasons;
- Job openings;
- Industrial production;
- Real Manufacturing; and
- Trade Sales.
In August, seven of the eight factors registered declines. Only the "number of employees hired by temporary help agencies" registered an increase. According to the Conference Board, it is the "first time since March 2009 that seven components contributed negatively to the overall index."
Locally, the New York State Department of Labor reported that the state's economy added 2,500 private sector jobs in August. Additionally, the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 8.2% in July 2010 to 8.3% in August 2010.
| August 2010 | July 2010 | August 2009 | |
| North Country | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% |
| New York State | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| United States | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% |
| Clinton | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| Essex | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| Franklin | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% |
| Hamilton | 4./9% | 5.1% | 4.2% |
| U-6 | 16.8% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
According to the report, the number of unemployed New York State residents grew from 796,000 in July to 801,400 in August 2010.
"The recovery in New York State's labor market slowed somewhat in August as we only added 2,500 private sector jobs over the month. In addition, our statewide unemployment rate increased from 8.2% to 8.3%, but remained well below the nation's rate of 9.6% in August," said Norman A. Steele, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics.
Change in Jobs by Sector, August 2009 - August 2010
| Sectors With Job Gains: | |
| Leisure & Hospitality | +24,600 |
| Educational & Health Services | +18,000 |
| Other Services | +17,400 |
| Professional & Business Services | +12,300 |
| Natural Resources & Mining | +200 |
| Sectors With Job Losses: | |
| Government | -65,800 |
| Trade, Transportation & Utilities | -8,800 |
| Manufacturing | -5,300 |
| Financial Activities | -4,400 |
| Construction | -3,700 |
| Information | -2,000 |
The modest private sector job gains during the past few months may be reflective of the fact that businesses have little confidence business about the future.
The economy continues to be plagued by the bursting of the housing bubble and by the American consumers increased saving and decreased spending, both of which especially affect small and medium- sized businesses.
A recently released ABC News-Washington Post poll confirms that while Americans are concerned about many things, the economy is at the top of the list.
The poll showed that:
- 92% of Americans believe that the economy is in "bad shape".
- Only 24% of those surveyed said they believe that the economy is improving.
- 33% of those surveyed said they believed that President Obama's economic program has made the economy worse.
- 52% of those surveyed said that they "disapprove" of the way that President Obama is handling his job overall.
- 57% also said they would give President Obama a thumbs down on his handling of the economy.
- "Likely voters now favor the Republican over the Democratic candidate in their congressional district by 53-40 percent", which is the "widest GOP margin on record in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1981".
It's difficult to be optimistic with the unemployment rate still pushing 10% and those not currently unemployed worrying that they may soon join the ranks of the unemployed.
In a nice reversal of fortunes, though, New York State is performing significantly better than the national unemployment rate, while Clinton County showed an encouraging drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in July to 9.1% in August. Clinton County now has an unemployment rate that is lower than the national average, as does the North Country, overall.