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A Global Turnaround?
by Paul Grasso, December 17, 2010
Manpower Inc. recently released its annual Employment Outlook Survey. The survey revealed an improving story news for jobseekers.
The survey notes that 28 of the 39 countries and territories surveyed expect hiring to improve in the first quarter of 2011. Germany, Italy, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States were among those predicting a more positive start to the New Year. Admittedly, 73 percent of employers in the US indicate they will keep staff levels unchanged. Still, the hiring projections are the most positive in 3 years. Germany painted the brightest picture, with unemployment expected to be at its lowest level in 18 years
In March, Manpower will release their Employment Outlook Survey on actual first quarter hiring, and will estimate hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2011; that survey will be telling
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that unemployment rose to 9.8% in November, up from 9.6% in October. The increase was led by job losses primarily in state and local governments.
The U-6 underemployment rate, which is a better measure of the broader impact of unemployment, underemployment, and those who have given up looking for work, remained steady at 17%
One ray of hope is the successful passage of a new stimulus package. Many feel that it is legislation built too much on politics and compromise rather than actual job creation. However, most believe it is preferable to no agreement at all. Of all the components of the package, those polled give their strongest support to the 13-month re-authorization of federal unemployment insurance program. Economists also have taken note of the 2% reduction in the payroll tax, which should result in a substantial stimulus effect to follow up several quarters of steady retail spending gains.
Indeed, as opposed to the previous stimulus package built upon job preservation, this new approach may actually be successful in creating employment.
It is important to note that the group of unemployed Americans getting the most attention in the media, those unemployed for 99 weeks will receive no relief from the compromise currently being debated. The "extension of the unemployment benefits" is an extension of the qualifying dates for the various tiers of benefits, and not additional weeks of benefits. There is no additional help for the so-called "99ers"
The New York State Department of Labor reported that the New York economy added only 700 private sector jobs in November. This was the smallest monthly jobs gain during the state's current economic recovery. New York's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.3% in November and the number of unemployed State residents increased from 797,400 in October to 799,500 in November 2010
"Like the nation as a whole, New York State's economic recovery from this recession has been very uneven to date. November's small increase of 700 private sector jobs follows October's very large gain of 37,800. The recovery has also been uneven across the state's regions. While New York City's unemployment rate is down over the year, virtually every other metro area in the state saw its rate increase over the year. The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.3% in November, remaining below the nation's rate of 9.8%," said Norman A. Steele, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics.
Unemployment Rates* (seasonally adjusted)
| *Data are preliminary and subject to change. | |||
| Unemployment Rates* | November 2010* |
October 2010 |
November 2009 |
| New York State | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| United States | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| North Country | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% |
| U-6 | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.2% |
| Clinton | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% |
| Essex | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% |
| Franklin | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% |
| Hamilton | 9.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% |
Of the 62 counties in New York, Clinton and Essex are ranked 7th for highest unemployment, Hamilton 8th, and Franklin is 13th.
NYSDOL further reported that since November 2009, the number of nonfarm jobs in New York increased by 38,100.
Change in Jobs by Sector, November 2009 - November 2010
| Sectors With Job Gains: | |
| Educational & Health Services | +30,800 |
| Professional & Business Services | +27,600 |
| Other Services | +16,600 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | +8,400 |
| Financial Activities | +2,000 |
| Construction | +1,900 |
| Natural Resources & Mining | +400 |
| Sectors With Job Losses: | |
| Government | -39,800 |
| Trade, Transportation & Utilities | -4,800 |
| Information | -3,600 |
| Manufacturing | -1,400 |
NYSDOL Highlights among sectors with job gains since November 2009
- Educational and health services added the most private sector jobs (+30,800) of any sector over the past year. Within that sector, job gains were greatest in health care and social assistance (+21,000), particularly ambulatory health care services (+11,800).
- Professional and business services (+27,600) had the second largest increase in jobs since November 2009. Sector job gains were greatest in administrative and support services (+15,000).
- The third largest increase in jobs occurred in other services (+16,600); where gains were concentrated in religious, grant making, civic, and professional organizations (+14,600).
- The job count also increased over the year in leisure and hospitality (+8,400). Gains in accommodation and food services (+13,500) outweighed losses in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-5,100).
- Financial activities (+2,000), construction (+1,900) and natural resources and mining (+400) also increased over the year.
Highlights among sectors with job losses since November 2009
- Over the past year, government lost the most jobs (-39,800) of any sector. Losses were greatest at the local level (-25,500). Losses also occurred at the state (-9,600) and federal (-4,700) levels.
- Trade, transportation, and utilities had the second largest jobs decline (-4,800). Sector job losses were greatest in wholesale and retail trade (-4,200).
- Information had the third largest jobs decline (-3,600). Sector job losses were centered in publishing (-3,100) and telecommunications (-2,500).
- The job count also fell over the year in manufacturing (-1,400), with factory losses largest in machinery (-4,900) and computers and electronic products (-3,700).
Locally, the NYSDOL data show that the number of jobs in the region decreased by 400 in November.
Number of Non-Farm Jobs in the North Country
| *Data are preliminary and subject to change. | |||
| November 2010 |
October 2010 |
November 2009 |
|
| Clinton | 35,000 | 34,200 | 35,200 |
| Essex | 14,700 | 15,700 | 14,900 |
| Franklin | 19,600 | 19,500 | 19,700 |
| Hamilton | 2,100 | 2,500 | 2,200 |
| Total | 71,400 | 71,900 | 72,000 |
The big news, however, was the Laurentian Aerospace announcement that they have secured their financing. Laurentian Aerospace forecasts that the project will create 900 new jobs by their second year of operations in 2014 and an equal number of secondary jobs related to the project.