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The worst job market since the Great Depression?
by Paul Grasso, January 22, 2011
None of you will be surprised that 2010 ended as a very difficult employment year, nationally, statewide, and locally. Just how challenging was it?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began reporting unemployment data in 1948. The highest annual average unemployment rate occurred in 1982 when unemployment averaged 9.71%. In 2010, the average monthly national unemployment rate in the United States was 9.64%, the second highest on record. It pushed the average unemployment rate of 9.6% of 1983 into the number three spot.
During the 1982 recession the unemployment rate remained over 9% for a period of nineteen months. In this Great Recession the unemployment rate has already exceeded 9% for twenty months, and shows no signs of improving dramatically in the near future.
There are many economists who point to various economic data as proof that the national economy is steadily, albeit slowly, improving. Most of these same economists are also predicting that the average monthly unemployment rate in 2011 will not fall below 9%. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that that it will take "four to five more years for the job market to normalize fully." The economy is not creating and sustaining enough jobs to lower the rate in spite of the fact that other economic indicators are improving.
That is certainly true of New York. December was not a good month for the state's job market. According to the New York State Department of Labor (NYSDOL), the state's economy lost 22,600 private sector jobs in December 2010. "The total nonfarm job count in New York decreased by 22,800, or 0.3%, in December 2010. The nonfarm job count tracks all jobs in the private and public sectors." This indicator does not count the self-employed or farm workers.
New York State's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.2% in December 2010, down from 8.3% in November. The number of unemployed New York State residents dropped slightly - from 797,600 in November to 792,800 in December 2010.
"Job growth in New York State has been inconsistent month to month during this economic recovery. However, the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 8.2% in December, remaining below the even higher national rate of 9.4%," noted Norman A. Steele, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics.
Unemployment Statistics (NYSDOL Data) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
| Unemployment Rate | December 2010 |
November 2010 |
December 2009 |
| North Country | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% |
| New York State | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| United States | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% |
| U-6 Unemployment Rate | 16.7% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
The following chart shows the change in the number of jobs by employment sector in New York State between December 2009 and December 2010. According to the NYSDOL:
Highlights among NYS sectors with job gains since December 2009:
- Educational and health services added the most private sector jobs (+30,800) of any sector over the past year. Within that sector, job gains were greatest in health care and social assistance (+21,900), particularly ambulatory health care services (+11,100).
- Professional and business services (+23,100) had the second largest increase in jobs since December 2009. Sector job gains were greatest in administrative and support services (+10,000).
- The third largest increase in jobs occurred in other services (+14,800), where gains were concentrated in religious, grant making, civic, and professional organizations (+12,100).
- The job count also increased over the year in leisure and hospitality (+9,700). Gains in accommodation and food services (+14,800) outweighed losses in arts, entertainment, and recreation ( 5,100).
- Financial activities (+1,800) and natural resources and mining (+300) also increased over the year.
Highlights among NYS sectors with job losses since December 2009:
- Over the past year, government lost the most jobs (-34,700) of any sector. Losses were greatest at the local level (-24,800). Losses also occurred at the state (-6,600) and federal (-3,300) levels.
- Construction had the second largest jobs decline (-4,000) with large losses in specialty trade contractors (-10,000), offset somewhat by gains in building construction (+4,200).
- Information had the third largest jobs decline (-3,800). Sector job losses were centered in publishing (-2,700) and telecommunications (-2,200).
- The job count also fell over the year in trade, transportation and utilities (-1,100) and manufacturing (-800).
Change in Jobs by Sector, December 2009 - December 2010
| Sectors With Job Gains: | |
| Educational & Health Services | +30,800 |
| Professional & Business Services | +23,100 |
| Other Services | +14,800 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | +9,700 |
| Financial Activities | +1,800 |
| Natural Resources & Mining | +300 |
| Sectors With Job Losses: | |
| Government | -34,700 |
| Construction | -4,000 |
| Information | -3,800 |
| Trade, Transportation & Utilities | -1,100 |
| Manufacturing | -800 |
Local counties fared somewhat worse than state averages. The unemployment rate increased in three of the four counties in the North Country. Only Essex County showed a slight .2% decrease. Overall, the region's unemployment ranges 1.5% to 1.8% higher than the state average. Currently, about 7,900 people in the region are unemployed and looking for a full-time job.
| Unemployment Rate | December 2010 |
November 2010 |
December 2009 |
| Clinton | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| Essex | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.5 |
| Franklin | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Hamilton | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.2 |